# Develop 3 simulation models to predict total revenue for a single 16-game season.

## Develop 3 simulation models to predict total revenue for a single 16-game season.

UMASS LOWELL オペレーション基礎 Case Studies
Case #3 : University of Wyoming Men’s Basketball Team
At the University of Wyoming, home games played by the men’s basketball team generated
significant revenues for the Athletics Department through ticket and concession sales. With the
2009–10 season ending, it was time to forecast revenues for the upcoming season. Even though
ticket prices were already set, providing a revenue forecast was difficult, as the schedule of home
games for the 2010–11 season was unknown, and both ticket and concession sales for each game
were uncertain.
Assignment
Imagine that you have been hired as a consultant for Bill Sparks, the Senior Associate Director of
Business Operations for the Athletics Department. To help him and the University of Wyoming
predict revenues for the coming year, you will need to answer the questions below. After
performing the necessary analyses, prepare a short write-up that addresses the questions. The
write-ups will be evaluated on their content and presentation, including logic, organization,
grammar, and spelling. The write-ups should be two to three typed pages (double-spaced), not
including support materials such as diagrams and spreadsheets. Please combine all files into a
single document and submit it to the Blackboard Dropbox by the due date indicated below.
Questions
1. Identify the variables that are likely to be related to ticket and concession sales. [1 point]
2. Use simple linear regression to develop two models: one for predicting ticket sales and one
for predicting concession sales. [2 points]
3. Develop 3 simulation models to predict total revenue for a single 16-game season. One
variable in your simulations should be the team’s win percentage. Use Naïve, Moving
average, Weighted Moving Average(0.7, 0,2 0.2 and 0.1 respectively) and compare the
models. The simulation models should be entered into a spreadsheet to facilitate multiple
replications. [3 points]
4. Assume Sparks’ projection for the team’s win percentage for the upcoming season is
randomly set, with each of the win percentages of the four recent seasons equally likely to
occur in the upcoming season. Provide a forecast for total revenue for the season, assuming
only the minimum number of home games will be played — eight conference games and
eight non-conference games, each eight split evenly between weekends and weekdays.
Your forecast should be based on at least 100 simulated seasons. [2 point]
5. Demonstrate revenue impact analysis by using what-if approaches as follows. [1 point]
– Change win%
– Change the number of games in weekdays and weekends
– Change the number of conference and non-conference
After the comparison, show the most effective strategy Mr. Sparks should take.
The presentation and style of the document count for an additional 1 point, for a total of 10
possible points.

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